Game maths
RTP and hit frequency answer different questions
RTP measures the long-run proportion of stakes a game returns as prizes. Hit frequency measures how often a round produces a payout. A game can pay frequently and still return less than you stake: a €0.20 prize on a €1 spin is a hit with an €0.80 loss.
The same 96% RTP with different hit counts
| Model detail | Model A | Model B |
|---|---|---|
| Paying outcomes out of 100 | 10 | 48 |
| Prize on each paying outcome | €9.60 | €2 |
| Prize on each other outcome | €0 | €0 |
| Sum of prizes across the 100 outcomes | 10 × €9.60 = €96 | 48 × €2 = €96 |
| RTP for a €1 stake | 96% | 96% |
| Hit frequency | 10% | 48% |
The models distribute the same expected return differently. They do not promise these outcome counts in your next 100 rounds.
Money returned versus rounds that pay
RTP compares prize money with stake money. At a theoretical 96% RTP, €1,000 of total stakes corresponds to €960 of expected return and €40 of expected loss in the game model. That is a long-run expectation. One session can finish well above or below it.
Hit frequency compares paying rounds with all rounds. A 20% hit frequency describes one paying outcome in five on average, including prizes smaller than the stake if the published metric counts any payout. It says nothing by itself about how much those hits pay. Check the game's definition if the figure counts only a particular event, such as a bonus feature.
The next spin is still a separate outcome
Use each number for its own job
RTP helps compare the mathematical cost of games when you have the figure for the exact version being played. Its companion is house edge: for a model with 96% RTP, the expected house share is 4% of stakes. A deposit is not the same as total stake volume, because returned money can be bet again.
Hit frequency helps describe the pattern of paying rounds. It cannot tell you whether those payouts sustain a balance. Volatility describes another part of the distribution, including how unevenly prizes are spread. Frequent small hits, rare large wins and the same RTP can coexist in different game designs.
When comparing two game screens
Find the exact RTP setting
Use the help or paytable for the version loaded at the casino. A figure for another configuration is not necessarily the figure for your game.
Find what counts as a hit
Check whether the number includes any prize, a net-winning round or only a feature. Compare like definitions.
Keep the session separate from the model
Your results over a short run do not establish the game's theoretical RTP. Record stakes and prizes if you want to describe that session's actual return.